1st July 2024|1 minute read

Brave New World

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As the latest generation of investment managers throw in the towel after a prolonged period of frustration at the “brokenness” of markets, I’m reminded of the sage sentiments of a former colleague. Risk and uncertainty are critically different. The financial world thrives on calculating risks, but recent years have seen a rise in uncertainty - Russia invading Ukraine, Covid shutting down the world as we know it, and AGI threatening the end of work. Risk, while an ever-present factor, involves measurable possibilities. We can reasonably assess the likelihood of a market downturn or a company's performance based on historical data and market trends. Uncertainty, on the other hand, deals with the unknown. Black swan events, unforeseen technological disruptions, or geopolitical crises throw predictions out the window.

So, how do we build an investment team that endeavours to navigate these murky waters? Here's our three-pronged approach:

  • 1. Diversity of Thought and Experience: A team that echoes the same perspectives is susceptible to blind spots. We have individuals with varied academic backgrounds and diverse experiences that aim to consider a wider range of scenarios and identify unforeseen opportunities.

  • 2. Embrace the Power of Data, But Don't Be Enslaved by It: Data analysis is crucial, but an over-reliance on historical patterns can create a false sense of security. We don’t model short-term details, but rather explore extreme but plausible situations to challenge assumptions and prepare for the unexpected.

  • 3. Continuous Learning and Adaptability: The world is probably evolving at an accelerating pace. We foster a culture of learning within the team, encouraging participation in industry conferences, courses, workshops, trips to museums, lectures, and independent research. A team that is curious and adaptable will be better equipped to navigate the uncharted territory of uncertainty. With new information viewed as an opportunity

Building an investment team that thrives in an environment of risk and uncertainty requires looking beyond what can be measured. While an understanding of traditional risk assessment is necessary, we believe that fostering diversity of thought, a nuanced approach to data, and a commitment to continuous learning are the keys to building a resilient team that can weather any storm.

By Richard Sneller

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